Whisper it quietly, Republic of Ireland can indeed knock France out of Euro 2016 on Sunday, writes Peter McNamara.
Huddle in, let me explain.
Have you watched Didier Deschamps’ team in this tournament?
You saw their group-stage opener following on from the opening ceremony?
You saw bits and pieces? And you saw all three games they played?
Fair enough.
Have you really watched them from a tactical perspective removed from the glitz and glamour of the fact Les Bleus are hosting the tournament, though?
If you have you will have noticed a pretty salient feature of their make-up which Martin O’Neill can utilise to Ireland’s advantage.
France are an accident waiting to happen defensively.
That, admittedly, may seem a harsh assessment, especially as Romania’s Bogdan Stancu is the only player to have scored against France in the tournament so far.
Yet, the concession of one goal in three group games is papering over exploitable cracks.
Deschamps’ outfit are the tournament favourites in the eyes of the odds-compilers and much of the continent, actually.
I find that idea to be a gross over-indulgence of their chances of lifting the Henri Delaunay Trophy.
To survive in the knockout rounds you must be near-flawless at the back.
You will not gain sight of the silverware if your rearguard is as creaky as an old barn door.
You can have players like Dimitri Payet further up-field conducting your attack, offensive craftsmen as Antoine Griezmann is developing those forward plays and possess finishers such as Olivier Giroud.
However, if your central defensive partnership is Adil Rami and Laurent Koscielny flanked by full-backs Bacary Sagna and 35-year-old Patrice Evra you are more than susceptible to being attacked and penetrated from raids generated along the wings.
Koscielny, alone, is quite a decent defender.
Yet, the Arsenal clubman requires a strong presence beside him before truly showing the best of himself.
Rami does not represent that strong presence.
Neither are natural, commanding leaders.
Both are only somewhat assured when opponents try to play in front of them, as are most central defenders.
However, if you drag either or both to their left or right of centre they are incredibly vulnerable.
And each of Romania, Albania and Switzerland have exploited this weakness to a degree.
Romania and Albania in particular figured, arguably too late in their respective contests with Deschamps’ side, that targeting Rami and Koscielny can be easily achieved via the application of pressure on both Sagna and Evra.
If you override the presence of those full-backs Rami and Koscielny are not at all comfortable trying to counteract crosses and tee-ups from either flank, low ones especially.
This should make Ireland’s wide players’ roles pivotal in the Stade de Lyon.
James McClean and Robbie Brady were exceptional on Wednesday night in Lille.
If Martin O’Neill has been emboldened by what he witnessed from his players in the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, and he should be, he might be best-served being extremely brave in this last-16 clash and implement an orthodox 4-4-2 in Lyon.
That may sound naive and O’Neill is much more likely to opt for a 4-5-1 formation.
However, the key to tormenting France will be to focus on getting the likes of McClean and Brady in possession as much as possible because Sagna and Evra will not fancy counteracting the pace of either player.
Bearing in mind Blaise Matuidi and N’Golo Kante will crowd out the central channels it is imperative Ireland try to reduce their input by having wide players hugging the touchlines and hitting them regularly with possessions.
The fact Deschamps feels the need to deploy two screening players in midfield speaks volumes about the level of trust he has in his back four.
You looked at France’s line-up for their initial outing in the tournament and wondered why Deschamps opted to utilise Matuidi and Kante.
Yet, we soon learned exactly why he does allowing for the relatively flimsy operators stationed behind them.
Obviously, their defensive quartet have bundles of experience but they do not strike us as players in sync with each other’s games.
When Wes Hoolahan collects the ball in the middle-third his primary instinct will be to look for either Shane Long and/or Daryl Murphy.
However, that would play right into the hands of Kante because if he shuts down that angle of attack France can transition swiftly from the Leicester City gem to Payet and Paul Pogba.
Therefore, Hoolahan might get more joy releasing McClean and/or Brady than directly hitting the front-line attackers.
Additionally, Darren Randolph will have a role to play in keeping Sagna and Evra on the back-foot.
The West Ham goalkeeper is a man that has shown himself adept at driving accurate restarts into those corners where defenders hate having to shimmy back towards their own goal.
Assuming France shade possession, it is essential, that when counter-attacks are a possibility, that this is considered a reliable means of hurting France defensively.
Furthermore, by attacking these particular corners of space opportunities for shots may be engineered from angles Hugo Lloris is not keen on shaping up to as Tottenham supporters will be aware.
Don’t be fooled into thinking the French captain is near-infallible.
Highlight reels, after all, can be deceptive.
Lloris was caught by attempts that were hit across his body from wide players on more than one occasion last season – Ayoze Perez’s 93rd-minute match-winner for Newcastle United in the Premier League at White Hart Lane being a case in point.
Obviously, all of this evaluation is great in theory.
Yet, Ireland will surely have identified these tactics could be their best route to goal.
Avoid those central lines, attack France from the wings and victory will not be out of the question.
