In the North, Sinn Féin has managed to cut the majority of the Democratic Unionist Party to a single seat in a snap election.
Although the DUP is still the biggest party, the results mean completely new ground for the North.
Sinn Fein in fine voice in Fermanagh and South Tyrone with 3 MLAs. #AE17 pic.twitter.com/9kfLRZJZi6
— Michael McGlade (@McGladeM) March 3, 2017
The unionists previously had a 10-seat majority, but they now have 28 out of 90 seats, while Sinn Féin has 27, after a high voter turnout of 65%.
Why was there a snap election in the first place?
Nothern Ireland has had a power-sharing devolved assembly since 2007 so it’s had to represent both the unionists and nationalists.
Earlier this year, leader of the DUP and first minister Arlene Foster were embroiled in a scandal surrounding the Renewable Heat Incentive which saw Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister, resign in protest. Because Foster refused to resign during the investigation into her role in the green energy scheme, the government collapsed and a snap election had to be called.
What is the ‘petition of concern’?
The DUP don't have majority anymore so they can't veto gay marriage 🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈 'mon sinn fein don't let us down now
— ya girl O (@iamtrulytrash) March 4, 2017
For the first time, unionists won’t have the overall majority which affects Stormont’s “petition of concern”.
A petition of concern can be brought by 30 or more MLAs to veto particular bills, like marriage equality or any amendments to the abortion laws. With fewer MLAs, the DUP has lost the ability to do that.
Same-sex marriage legislation could now by pushed by Sinn Féin. The party also backed legislation last year that would have allowed abortion in the case of fatal foetal abnormalities. The amendment to the Justice Bill was blocked at the time, but now the party may have more power to make some progress in reforming abortion laws, although many other parties support the abortion ban.
What’s happened to other parties?
Arlene Foster is likely to face some scrutiny after the DUP lost such a big lead (and importantly, Stromont veto means). The nationalist SDLP is now the third largest party with 12 seats which was better than expected.
The Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt has resigned after a poor showing – the party only has 10 Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) now. While the Alliance party has eight, the Greens two, People Before Profit one, Traditional Unionist Voice one and there’s one independent unionist.
It means the balance of unionist to nationalist is much more balanced than it was before – 40 unionists to 39 nationalist/republicans, with the remainder of the 90 MLAs affiliated to neither tradition.
What it might mean for Brexit
More uncertainly probably. SinnFéin wants “special status” for Northern Ireland and for the whole of Ireland to remain in the EU (they want a more united Ireland). As Nicola Sturgeon ideally wants the same for Scotland, Theresa May has an even bigger fight on her hands to keep the UK united when it comes to Brexit.
Sinn Fein gains alone give PM May another constitutional headache while she prepares for Brexit. Not to mention the prospect of Direct Rule.
— Peter A Smith (@PeterAdamSmith) March 4, 2017
How many fronts can Theresa May fight on and win during Brexit? Brussels, SNP, and Sinn Fein will all be trying to out-manoeuvre her.
— Peter A Smith (@PeterAdamSmith) March 4, 2017
What’s next?
It’s unclear at the moment whether it’s going to be possible for the North to form a new government. They have three weeks to try and work something out though. If they can’t reach an agreement, Northern Ireland secretary James Brokenshire could advise that another election is called, or Westminster might have to temporarily take charge while a new administration is organised.
If that happens, questions will arise as to whether direct rule, instead of powersharing, would be the next option.
